Cameron Hudson: The US is now petitioning...
The US is now petitioning African states to withdraw from the ICC. Most jarring is that they are asking in countries where local justice mechanisms are fundamentally broken already.
Cameron Hudson: Just like in the Horn of Africa...
Just like in the Horn of Africa, the Trump Administration has no strategy for the Sahel. Except the Sahel is even less strategic to US interests than the Horn. So the idea of expanding our game of terrorist whack-a-mole from Somalia, to Nigeria, to Mali might play to a MAGA audience, make us appear tough, and might possibly undermine Russia in the region (which has never been a stated objective of this Administration), it risks making the US a target for these terror groups, encourage them to deepen ties AQ and IS core groups outside the Sahel, and send us down a slippery slope of escalation that neither the French nor Russians escaped from without serious damage to their pride and reputation.Cameron Hudson: Sudan has not been forgotten...
"Sudan has not been forgotten so much as politically abandoned." I think many Western officials would argue that this isn't true. I see their statements, warnings, condemnations and even sanctions in response to what is happening daily in Sudan. But, as long as those same countries don't take the political decisions that are available to them, namely using their political and financial relationship with the UAE as essential leverage in bringing about an end to the war, then the accusation of political abandonment will apply.Cameron Hudson: As Security Deteriorates...
As Security Deteriorates, Sahelian Juntas Further Stifle Civilians. I wonder how the Trump Administration will respond to its War Department telling them that their new best friends in the Sahel aren't such nice guys?Cameron Hudson: A new EU/IOM program is spending 13.3 million euro...
A new EU/IOM program is spending 13.3 million euro to support 1500 Chadian youth to prevent them from migrating through Europe through various forms of job training. That's almost 9000/person most of which will end up going to Geneva/Brussels bureaucrats👍Cameron Hudson: The US has continued to cozy up...
"The US has continued to cozy up to the UAE, the RSFs main backer, prompting new questions about the overlap between US diplomatic priorities and the Trump clan’s personal business interests." As I have been saying for months and not a good look for the US.Cameron Hudson: Sudan's conflict is much more about securing borders...
Sudan's conflict is much more about securing borders, hitting supply lines, and controlling strategic nodes than conquering territory for political purposes.Cameron Hudson: Washington forgets that Sudan...
Washington forgets that Sudan survived under comprehensive US sanctions from 1993-2020. Do they really think that a handful of targeted sanctions today are going to do anything to tip the balance and change the calculus of war? Previous sanctions were much stronger and more complete and only moved the needle after decades.Cameron Hudson: It is diplomatic malpractice...
It is diplomatic malpractice that the US is sanctioning one side of this conflict while the other side engages in a “strategic and methodical” besiegement of one of Sudan’s largest cities. Again.Cameron Hudson: Rubio says he is pushing all...
Rubio says he is pushing all regional actors to secure a ceasefire as if all regional actors are equally responsible for fueling the conflict; just as Washington says it is holding both sides of the conflict responsible, as if they are equally responsible for the crimes occurring.Cameron Hudson: More overwhelming accounts of UAE...
More overwhelming accounts of UAE role in 🇸🇩."Many governments contributed to Sudan’s catastrophe. But the UAE went above and beyond to run a covert airbridge to the RSF, airlifting wounded RSF fighters to Emirati hospitals, and facilitating RSF smuggling."Cameron Hudson: Death, distrust, and desperation…
Death, distrust, and desperation: The unending saga of Sudanese refugees trapped in northern Niger. Another heartbreaking after-effect of the war in Sudan.Cameron Hudson: RSF 'to cut flow of oil unless Sudan army drone strikes cease.'…
RSF 'to cut flow of oil unless Sudan army drone strikes cease.' That is a considerable threat, but couldn't just the SAF threaten to blow up RSF diamond mines? There is a certain degree of mutually assured destruction, no?Cameron Hudson: RSF defections…
RSF defections: a turning point in Sudan's war? This asks the good question, what if Hemedti were to defect? Would he face the same lack of accountability? Recent defections, and their poor public response, demands SAF find an answer before peace talks.Cameron Hudson: The SAF and its intelligence services...
"The SAF and its intelligence services identify RSF commanders whose tribal loyalties are fraying, offer guarantees and then publicize the defection for maximum psychological effect." An excellent look at what recent RSF defections mean for the war.Cameron Hudson: The war with Iran cannot erase…
"The war with Iran cannot erase fundamental tensions between the two powers. The strained relationship between the Gulf powerhouses is likely to influence the region’s trajectory for years to come."Cameron Hudson: Israel and the UAE find common…
Israel and the UAE find common cause as the Iran war cracks old Middle East alliances. The implications for African states of this alliance is already being felt by frontline African states, particularly in the Horn. Those states need to wake up to this.Cameron Hudson: RSF drones strike southern Khartoum…
RSF drones strike southern Khartoum and North Kordofan. I was in Jebel Aulia last month and everyone I spoke to felt confident that the war would not return to their city. These threats make any return to normalcy for average people impossible.Cameron Hudson: The Horn region is no longer…
"The Horn region is no longer dealing with isolated crises but rather a systemic pattern of conflict shaped by both internal tensions and external pressures." Diagnosing the problem has never been the problem. Its the response that falls apart.Cameron Hudson: To clarify my commentary…
To clarify my commentary, my opposition is not to lifting sanctions on Eritrea, per se. There is a logic to it. Isaias is an important and powerful actor in a region of growing strategic importance. My issue is the manner in which such decisions get made. Yes there are upsides But there are also many potential downsides. A decision to lift sanctions cannot be considered in a vacuum as they might have been a few years ago. This is not simply a bilateral matter any more. Beyond that, I question the Administration’s own logic. Engagement without a strategy can be self-defeating. And I don’t believe we have a well articulated Horn or Red Sea strategy. And also, if Trump’s diplomacy is transactional then what do we get for lifting these sanctions? I understand what Isaias and Sisi get, but it’s not clear what the US gets. Isaias is not going to reform internally, he isn’t going to give the US a base. And even if he promised those things, why on earth would we trust him? He has survived through alliance building and then abandonment. Why would now be any different? My commentary was intended to create public debate around all these questions because discussions make for better policies and better outcomes for everyone. Secret talks suggest the US and Boulos are not interested in public debates. We can do better. ✌️Cameron Hudson: My god. The humanitarian situation...
My god. The humanitarian situation for Sudanese keeps getting worse, including in refugee camps outside the country. A true demonstration of the failed humanitarian response having nothing to do with humanitarian corridors or truces which obfuscate for a lack of overall aid.
22, April
Cameron Hudson: As I have been predicting for weeks…
As I have been predicting for weeks, Washington has jumped into the hornets nest of Red Sea politics, holding secret meetings with Isaias in Cairo in a bid to increase its influence in the region by lifting sanctions on Eritrea. What will Eritrea do in return? How will Addis react? What does this mean for Trump's promise to restart GERD talks? How will this a US-Eritrea rapprochement affect the SAF and Sudan's war? And what will UAE and Saudi make of the US effort to enter Red Sea political debates, seemingly aligning itself against Ethiopia? Too many questions to answer. But what I can say is that the US is doing it all without a strategy with a used truck salesman at the helm. What could possibly go wrong??
17, April
Cameron Hudson: I remember when the US would have led…
I remember when the US would have led the world in imposing UN sanctions on these kinds of forces. Now it acts unilaterally, abandoning the multilateral system it helped to build, and wonders why its actions don't have their desired effect. 🇺🇸alone.
16, April
Cameron Hudson: The American government does not want…
“The American government does not want to come [to Sudan], and they are making all these allegations about Sudan without coming to see.” I have to agree with @Amgad_Fareid . The one common thread over 30 year of US diplomacy in Sudan is constant visits. I dont understand how we can claim to understand anything about this country without going there..frequently.
15, April