Color Scheme
Cameron Hudson: Just like in the Horn of Africa...
Cameron Hudson
22, July #WarSpillover

Cameron Hudson: Just like in the Horn of Africa...

Just like in the Horn of Africa, the Trump Administration has no strategy for the Sahel. Except the Sahel is even less strategic to US interests than the Horn. So the idea of expanding our game of terrorist whack-a-mole from Somalia, to Nigeria, to Mali might play to a MAGA audience, make us appear tough, and might possibly undermine Russia in the region (which has never been a stated objective of this Administration), it risks making the US a target for these terror groups, encourage them to deepen ties AQ and IS core groups outside the Sahel, and send us down a slippery slope of escalation that neither the French nor Russians escaped from without serious damage to their pride and reputation.
Cameron Hudson: Just like in the Horn of Africa...
https://x.com/_hudsonc/status/2080004030269428120
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Cameron Hudson: Sudan has not been forgotten...
Cameron Hudson
16, July #WarSpillover

Cameron Hudson: Sudan has not been forgotten...

"Sudan has not been forgotten so much as politically abandoned." I think many Western officials would argue that this isn't true. I see their statements, warnings, condemnations and even sanctions in response to what is happening daily in Sudan. But, as long as those same countries don't take the political decisions that are available to them, namely using their political and financial relationship with the UAE as essential leverage in bringing about an end to the war, then the accusation of political abandonment will apply.
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Cameron Hudson: To clarify my commentary…
Cameron Hudson
24, April #WarSpillover

Cameron Hudson: To clarify my commentary…

To clarify my commentary, my opposition is not to lifting sanctions on Eritrea, per se. There is a logic to it. Isaias is an important and powerful actor in a region of growing strategic importance. My issue is the manner in which such decisions get made. Yes there are upsides But there are also many potential downsides. A decision to lift sanctions cannot be considered in a vacuum as they might have been a few years ago. This is not simply a bilateral matter any more. Beyond that, I question the Administration’s own logic. Engagement without a strategy can be self-defeating. And I don’t believe we have a well articulated Horn or Red Sea strategy. And also, if Trump’s diplomacy is transactional then what do we get for lifting these sanctions? I understand what Isaias and Sisi get, but it’s not clear what the US gets. Isaias is not going to reform internally, he isn’t going to give the US a base. And even if he promised those things, why on earth would we trust him? He has survived through alliance building and then abandonment. Why would now be any different? My commentary was intended to create public debate around all these questions because discussions make for better policies and better outcomes for everyone. Secret talks suggest the US and Boulos are not interested in public debates. We can do better. ✌️
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Cameron Hudson: As I have been predicting for weeks…
Cameron Hudson
22, April

Cameron Hudson: As I have been predicting for weeks…

As I have been predicting for weeks, Washington has jumped into the hornets nest of Red Sea politics, holding secret meetings with Isaias in Cairo in a bid to increase its influence in the region by lifting sanctions on Eritrea. What will Eritrea do in return? How will Addis react? What does this mean for Trump's promise to restart GERD talks? How will this a US-Eritrea rapprochement affect the SAF and Sudan's war? And what will UAE and Saudi make of the US effort to enter Red Sea political debates, seemingly aligning itself against Ethiopia? Too many questions to answer. But what I can say is that the US is doing it all without a strategy with a used truck salesman at the helm. What could possibly go wrong??