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Cameron Hudson: Washington forgets that Sudan...
Cameron Hudson
30, June #WarSpillover

Cameron Hudson: Washington forgets that Sudan...

Washington forgets that Sudan survived under comprehensive US sanctions from 1993-2020. Do they really think that a handful of targeted sanctions today are going to do anything to tip the balance and change the calculus of war? Previous sanctions were much stronger and more complete and only moved the needle after decades.
Cameron Hudson: Washington forgets that Sudan...
https://x.com/_hudsonc/status/2071931644487798991
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Cameron Hudson: To clarify my commentary…
Cameron Hudson
24, April #WarSpillover

Cameron Hudson: To clarify my commentary…

To clarify my commentary, my opposition is not to lifting sanctions on Eritrea, per se. There is a logic to it. Isaias is an important and powerful actor in a region of growing strategic importance. My issue is the manner in which such decisions get made. Yes there are upsides But there are also many potential downsides. A decision to lift sanctions cannot be considered in a vacuum as they might have been a few years ago. This is not simply a bilateral matter any more. Beyond that, I question the Administration’s own logic. Engagement without a strategy can be self-defeating. And I don’t believe we have a well articulated Horn or Red Sea strategy. And also, if Trump’s diplomacy is transactional then what do we get for lifting these sanctions? I understand what Isaias and Sisi get, but it’s not clear what the US gets. Isaias is not going to reform internally, he isn’t going to give the US a base. And even if he promised those things, why on earth would we trust him? He has survived through alliance building and then abandonment. Why would now be any different? My commentary was intended to create public debate around all these questions because discussions make for better policies and better outcomes for everyone. Secret talks suggest the US and Boulos are not interested in public debates. We can do better. ✌️
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Cameron Hudson: As I have been predicting for weeks…
Cameron Hudson
22, April

Cameron Hudson: As I have been predicting for weeks…

As I have been predicting for weeks, Washington has jumped into the hornets nest of Red Sea politics, holding secret meetings with Isaias in Cairo in a bid to increase its influence in the region by lifting sanctions on Eritrea. What will Eritrea do in return? How will Addis react? What does this mean for Trump's promise to restart GERD talks? How will this a US-Eritrea rapprochement affect the SAF and Sudan's war? And what will UAE and Saudi make of the US effort to enter Red Sea political debates, seemingly aligning itself against Ethiopia? Too many questions to answer. But what I can say is that the US is doing it all without a strategy with a used truck salesman at the helm. What could possibly go wrong??