Edwin Hayward

14, July #BrokenSystem

Edwin Hayward: What happens if Farage...

What happens if Farage decides not to submit his candidacy for the Clacton by-election by the Friday deadline? Presumably the by-election will go ahead if there's at least one candidate. But it would be by far the weirdest by-election in British history.

https://x.com/edwinhayward/status/2076808394715930913

#BrokenSystem

Edwin Hayward

12, July #BrokenSystem

Edwin Hayward: Imagine if Nigel Farage and Reform had been scrutinised...

Imagine if Nigel Farage and Reform had been scrutinised for the last few years at the same intensity as they have been for the past week. It's only happening now because Farage painted a target on his back by quitting as an MP, and the other parties refused to put up candidates.

#BrokenSystem

Edwin Hayward

10, July #BrokenSystem

Edwin Hayward: The bantsmaxxing outcome would...

The bantsmaxxing outcome would see Farage lose to a man with a bin on his head, and Reform lose the Greater Manchester mayoral election because their activists were too busy in Clacton failing to get Farage re-elected.

#BrokenSystem

Edwin Hayward

10, July #BrokenSystem

Edwin Hayward: Nigel Farage quitting as an MP...

Nigel Farage quitting as an MP to avoid scrutiny is a perfect example of the Streisand Effect. With no other candidates except Count Binface, the media have nothing better to do than dig deep into Farage for a whole month. Every upturned stone reveals things wriggling under it.

#BrokenSystem

Edwin Hayward

07, July #BrokenSystem

Edwin Hayward: Count Binface vs Nigel Farage...

Count Binface vs Nigel Farage, all other parties stay out of Clacton. Or Al Murray vs Farage. Two examples off the top of my head. In a straight 1-vs-1 election, any candidate should be able to beat Farage. The problems start when the anti-Farage vote splits.

#BrokenSystem

Edwin Hayward

02, July #BrokenSystem

Edwin Hayward: They'll be attacking that newfangled...

They'll be attacking that newfangled "fire" thing soon enough. Not content until we're hiding in caves and running scared of our own shadows.

#BrokenSystem

Edwin Hayward

26, June #BrokenSystem

Edwin Hayward: Odd phrasing. Comes across as if the Home...

Odd phrasing. Comes across as if the Home Office is boasting about having driven 20 hotels to bankruptcy. Doubt that's what they meant, but "closed their doors for good" certainly reads that way.

#BrokenSystem

Edwin Hayward

22, June #StarmerCrisis

Edwin Hayward: Starmer made two mistakes on...

Starmer made two mistakes on his first day in office: Mistook an overwhelming majority of MPs for a stunning electoral victory when Labour's winning vote share was the lowest ever. Thought that people voted Labour for their manifesto policies rather than to get the Tories out.

#StarmerCrisis

Edwin Hayward

20, June #BrokenSystem

Edwin Hayward: Could we really be rid of...

Could we really be rid of Starmer soon? That would give Labour their one and only chance to pivot in a direction that might eke out a win at the 2029 GE and yank the UK away from the Reform cliff edge. If Burnham goes on to waste that opportunity, it's all over for the party.

#BrokenSystem

Edwin Hayward

18, June #TrendShock

Edwin Hayward: I'm in two minds about Andy Burnham...

I'm in two minds about Andy Burnham. On the one hand, a win would be the quickest way to replace Starmer, leaving maximum pivot time before the GE. However, I fear the gap between very high expectations and reality as he already flagged a number of continuity Starmer positions.

#TrendShock

Edwin Hayward

06, June #BrokenSystem

Edwin Hayward: Brexit damaged Britain's trade in goods…

Brexit damaged Britain's trade in goods. Brexit didn't affect Britain's trade in services v much. Taken together, Britain's trade in goods and services is higher than before Brexit. But the damage Brexit caused left them lower than they would have been had Brexit not happened.

#BrokenSystem

Edwin Hayward

31, May #BrokenSystem

Edwin Hayward: It's weird how quickly the Green party…

It's weird how quickly the Green party revert to economic incoherence. Not even a flicker of acknowledgement of how the real world works. Heaven help us if they have to figure out how to keep 68 million people alive and well whilst thumbing their noses at the financial markets.

#BrokenSystem

Edwin Hayward

30, May #WarSpillover

Edwin Hayward: Trump: We have a peace deal…

Trump: We have a peace deal. Iran: No, we don't. Iran: We have a peace deal. Trump: No, we don't. Trump: We have a peace deal. Iran: No, we don't. Iran: We have a peace deal. Trump: No, we don't. Repeat ad nauseam while the global economy sinks further.

#WarSpillover

Edwin Hayward

28, May #WarSpillover

Edwin Hayward: It's been 89 days since...

It's been 89 days since Trump launched Operation Epic Fury/Futility and attacked Iran. The USA's standing in the world is weaker than it has been for decades. Meanwhile, economies wither and millions more people are at risk of starvation. We need Operation Stop The Stupidity.

#WarSpillover

Edwin Hayward

25, May #CostOfLiving

Edwin Hayward: This shows the salaries being offered…

This shows the salaries being offered by the UK government for crucial AI roles right now are a literal joke. (For example £44K-49K/year for a senior AI projects lead.) If you're truly good enough for the requirements of a top post, you can make a mint in the private sector.

#CostOfLiving

Edwin Hayward

15, May #StarmerCrisis

Edwin Hayward: Labour's dire situation is easy to understand…

Labour's dire situation is easy to understand if you look at it with eyes wide open. Starmer won a huge majority of MPs but Labour's vote share in doing so was very low at just 33.7%. Compare that to Johnson in 2019 who won 43.6% of all votes. It's only FPTP that delivered the parliamentary majority Labour now enjoy. So any "Labour landslide" narrative strictly applies only to the number of Labour MPs in power, but crucially not to Labour's appeal with voters in general. A lot of the 33.7% were people who just wanted to see the back of the Tories. They weren't Starmer Labour voters. They would have voted for a balloon on a stick. Now add in rising interest in Reform and in the Green Party since 2024, and you'll see that Starmer's wafer thin actual electoral advantage has been obliterated. Put plainly: Labour WILL lose in 2029 unless something DRASTIC changes. (And even then they may well yet lose.) Starmer cannot make drastic changes. His hands are tied by his role in drafting the manifesto, by his various red lines, by his actions in the first two years as PM, and by the slate of upcoming initiatives he just unveiled in the King's Speech. But a new leader (especially someone not closely connected with Starmer's administration and therefore untainted by it) could tear everything up and start fresh in a completely different direction. Would that be enough? Who knows. It would take some skilled manoeuvring, that's for sure. Will Labour lose if they continue under Starmer? 100%. Roll the dice: have a chance. Stay the course: failure guaranteed.

#StarmerCrisis

Edwin Hayward

11, May #StarmerCrisis

Edwin Hayward: Two futures…

Two futures: 1) Starmer surrenders to the inevitable and resigns, likely with a brief transition period. 2) He hangs on. Labour disintegrates into vicious infighting, with dirty dossiers and scurrilous accusations flying, hurting everyone involved. Then Starmer surrenders etc.

#StarmerCrisis

Edwin Hayward

03, May #BrokenSystem

Edwin Hayward: At next week's local elections…

At next week's local elections, Labour will get exactly what they deserve. Try as I might, I cannot think of another case in modern political history when a party squandered a massive parliamentary advantage so profligately. And soon, we'll be into their last 3 years in power.

#BrokenSystem

Edwin Hayward

18, April

Edwin Hayward: I don't understand the logic…

I don't understand the logic of those who claim that if the UK rejoins the EU there's a big risk it will leave again. Before Brexit, leaving the EU was something abstract up for debate. But now people have seen the actual consequences. That changes the argument permanently.

Edwin Hayward

15, April

Edwin Hayward: Yet another reason for the UK…

Yet another reason for the UK to begin negotiating to rejoin the EU as soon as possible. The trade deal with the USA was never the big deal Brexiters claimed it was. But as their top win for an "independent Britain" falls apart, the case for EU membership grows even stronger.

Edwin Hayward

15, April

Edwin Hayward: One irritating thing about politicians…

One irritating thing about politicians is their habit of pretending that two things cannot both be true. For example: The Tories cut defence spending. (True, but they claim it's not). Labour have been slow to increase defence spending (True, but they claim it's not). #pmqs