18, June #TrendShock

Edwin Hayward: I'm in two minds about Andy Burnham...

I'm in two minds about Andy Burnham. On the one hand, a win would be the quickest way to replace Starmer, leaving maximum pivot time before the GE. However, I fear the gap between very high expectations and reality as he already flagged a number of continuity Starmer positions.

Edwin Hayward: I'm in two minds about Andy Burnham...

https://x.com/edwinhayward/status/2067735498928336924?s=20

#TrendShock

06, June #BrokenSystem

Edwin Hayward: Brexit damaged Britain's trade in goods…

Brexit damaged Britain's trade in goods. Brexit didn't affect Britain's trade in services v much. Taken together, Britain's trade in goods and services is higher than before Brexit. But the damage Brexit caused left them lower than they would have been had Brexit not happened.

#BrokenSystem

31, May #BrokenSystem

Edwin Hayward: It's weird how quickly the Green party…

It's weird how quickly the Green party revert to economic incoherence. Not even a flicker of acknowledgement of how the real world works. Heaven help us if they have to figure out how to keep 68 million people alive and well whilst thumbing their noses at the financial markets.

#BrokenSystem

30, May #WarSpillover

Edwin Hayward: Trump: We have a peace deal…

Trump: We have a peace deal. Iran: No, we don't. Iran: We have a peace deal. Trump: No, we don't. Trump: We have a peace deal. Iran: No, we don't. Iran: We have a peace deal. Trump: No, we don't. Repeat ad nauseam while the global economy sinks further.

#WarSpillover

28, May #WarSpillover

Edwin Hayward: It's been 89 days since...

It's been 89 days since Trump launched Operation Epic Fury/Futility and attacked Iran. The USA's standing in the world is weaker than it has been for decades. Meanwhile, economies wither and millions more people are at risk of starvation. We need Operation Stop The Stupidity.

#WarSpillover

25, May #CostOfLiving

Edwin Hayward: This shows the salaries being offered…

This shows the salaries being offered by the UK government for crucial AI roles right now are a literal joke. (For example £44K-49K/year for a senior AI projects lead.) If you're truly good enough for the requirements of a top post, you can make a mint in the private sector.

#CostOfLiving

15, May #StarmerCrisis

Edwin Hayward: Labour's dire situation is easy to understand…

Labour's dire situation is easy to understand if you look at it with eyes wide open. Starmer won a huge majority of MPs but Labour's vote share in doing so was very low at just 33.7%. Compare that to Johnson in 2019 who won 43.6% of all votes. It's only FPTP that delivered the parliamentary majority Labour now enjoy. So any "Labour landslide" narrative strictly applies only to the number of Labour MPs in power, but crucially not to Labour's appeal with voters in general. A lot of the 33.7% were people who just wanted to see the back of the Tories. They weren't Starmer Labour voters. They would have voted for a balloon on a stick. Now add in rising interest in Reform and in the Green Party since 2024, and you'll see that Starmer's wafer thin actual electoral advantage has been obliterated. Put plainly: Labour WILL lose in 2029 unless something DRASTIC changes. (And even then they may well yet lose.) Starmer cannot make drastic changes. His hands are tied by his role in drafting the manifesto, by his various red lines, by his actions in the first two years as PM, and by the slate of upcoming initiatives he just unveiled in the King's Speech. But a new leader (especially someone not closely connected with Starmer's administration and therefore untainted by it) could tear everything up and start fresh in a completely different direction. Would that be enough? Who knows. It would take some skilled manoeuvring, that's for sure. Will Labour lose if they continue under Starmer? 100%. Roll the dice: have a chance. Stay the course: failure guaranteed.

#StarmerCrisis

11, May #StarmerCrisis

Edwin Hayward: Two futures…

Two futures: 1) Starmer surrenders to the inevitable and resigns, likely with a brief transition period. 2) He hangs on. Labour disintegrates into vicious infighting, with dirty dossiers and scurrilous accusations flying, hurting everyone involved. Then Starmer surrenders etc.

#StarmerCrisis

03, May #BrokenSystem

Edwin Hayward: At next week's local elections…

At next week's local elections, Labour will get exactly what they deserve. Try as I might, I cannot think of another case in modern political history when a party squandered a massive parliamentary advantage so profligately. And soon, we'll be into their last 3 years in power.

#BrokenSystem

18, April

Edwin Hayward: I don't understand the logic…

I don't understand the logic of those who claim that if the UK rejoins the EU there's a big risk it will leave again. Before Brexit, leaving the EU was something abstract up for debate. But now people have seen the actual consequences. That changes the argument permanently.

15, April

Edwin Hayward: Yet another reason for the UK…

Yet another reason for the UK to begin negotiating to rejoin the EU as soon as possible. The trade deal with the USA was never the big deal Brexiters claimed it was. But as their top win for an "independent Britain" falls apart, the case for EU membership grows even stronger.

15, April

Edwin Hayward: One irritating thing about politicians…

One irritating thing about politicians is their habit of pretending that two things cannot both be true. For example: The Tories cut defence spending. (True, but they claim it's not). Labour have been slow to increase defence spending (True, but they claim it's not). #pmqs