Timothy Ash

14, July #WarSpillover

Timothy Ash: The remarkable resilience...

The remarkable resilience of the global economy and energy markets in particular during the second Iran war has created false confidence by Trump and hence a willingness to go to war with Iran for a third time. That global resilience looks to be tested again.

https://x.com/tashecon/status/2076935083810832623

#WarSpillover

Timothy Ash

04, July #WarSpillover

Timothy Ash: Arse licking of Trump is useless...

Arse licking of Trump is useless. Europe should tell Trump we have other options - let’s dump Turnberry and impose tit for tat tariffs on the U.S., and messsge we will begin buying kit elsewhere. While telling the world Trump broke NATO - let him own that.

#WarSpillover

Timothy Ash

02, July #CostOfLiving

Timothy Ash: Government and local government...

Government and local government regulations for businesses are like the RNLI handing out lifebelts made from concrete.

#CostOfLiving

Timothy Ash

18, June #WarSpillover

Timothy Ash: Remarkable that Hegseth has no concept...

Remarkable that Hegseth has no concept that Europe understood that this war would be a disaster, and it was. And that the US was waging a war against European interests, to hike energy prices and in the end make Iran stronger, which it has.

#WarSpillover

Timothy Ash

13, June #SpeechClampdown

Timothy Ash: Spot on - the bro Billionaires…

Spot on - the bro Billionaires are using ai, social media and increasing control of mainstream media to push a far right, racist agenda to control the masses.

#SpeechClampdown

Timothy Ash

01, June #BrokenSystem

Timothy Ash: Brexit has been a complete disaster…

Brexit has been a complete disaster for the UK - making us all a lot poorer. And yet there has been no proper account. Weaker economy, weaker diplomatic punch, institutional erosion, queues at borders, higher transactions costs (mobile phone roaming).

#BrokenSystem

Timothy Ash

18, May #WarSpillover

Timothy Ash: Trump started a war with Iran…

Trump started a war with Iran he cannot win or end. It strengthened the IRGC, China & Russia, weakened NATO, EU & Asian allies, boosting global inflation, increasing U.S. & global borrowing costs, slowing global growth, making the world’s poorest poorer.

#WarSpillover

Timothy Ash

13, May #WarSpillover

Timothy Ash: Türkiye’s current account deficit…

Türkiye’s current account deficit will inevitably be higher because of the Iran war. But reserve buffers are still high and with its strategic importance enhanced I expect support from friendly states - KSA, Qatar, even the U.S.

#WarSpillover

Timothy Ash

12, May #WarSpillover

Timothy Ash: But the reality is Trump…

But the reality is Trump said no more wars but he has now got himself into a war with Iran he cannot win. The Trump cult might not like to accept the reality but he is now going into a summit with Xi from a position of extreme weakness.

#WarSpillover

Timothy Ash

04, May #WarSpillover

Timothy Ash: Disappointing April inflation numbers in Turkiye…

Disappointing April inflation numbers in Turkiye - but understandable given the Iran war risk/hit. The longer the war goes on then the more pressure on the CBRT to hike policy rates.

#WarSpillover

Timothy Ash

03, May #BrokenSystem

Timothy Ash: Kemi Badenoch, the Tory leader…

Kemi Badenoch, the Tory leader, actually went on the BBC and questioned whether Tommy Robinson (Tommy Robinson!) is “creating a climate of intimidation and violence” with his rally. Astonishing. She’s a disgrace. The safety or ‘feelings’ of UK Muslims don’t count for her.

#BrokenSystem

Timothy Ash

02, May #BrokenSystem

Timothy Ash: NATO is dead and European leaders…

NATO is dead and European leaders who don’t get that are brain dead. Heard numerous military top brass types in UK pretend otherwise recently. Accept it and move on. Plan for worst - the reality.

#BrokenSystem

Timothy Ash

23, April #WarSpillover

Timothy Ash: With the EU, and Germany insulting...

With the EU, and Germany insulting Türkiye, via VDL comments, the U.K. should take advantage of this to deepen defence and security ties. So many synergies - combining the UK’s defence tech expertise, with Türkiye’s strong manufacturing base.

#WarSpillover

Timothy Ash

23, April #WarSpillover

Timothy Ash: The war in Iran presents a huge ...

The war in Iran presents a huge ST macro risks to Türkiye, via inflation/current account, but long term it presents huge strategic opportunities in defence, energy, trade routes, tourism. Türkiye should be anchor for strategic partnerships with middle powers.

#WarSpillover

Timothy Ash

19, April

Timothy Ash: Trump failed on Ukraine peace talks…

Trump failed on Ukraine peace talks (remember he bragged about 24H deal, 30 days, then 100), and Gaza (ask the 700+ dead Palestinians since). Iran - he fluffed the lines in Oman and now is living to regret the unlimited bounds of his own ego.