28, June #BrokenSystem

Deborah Haynes: Former UK military chief...

Former UK military chief @AdmTonyRadakin_ says @JohnHealey_MP , the previous defence secretary, (who he served under), had wrongly assured the PM & chancellor that the 2025 Strategic Defence Review was "balanced and affordable" on a budget of 2.5% of GDP rising to 3% at some point in the next parliament. He says most assessments put true cost at at least 4% of GDP It is a shame that Admiral Radakin didn't choose to ring the alarm so loudly and publicly when he was actually in office or resign in protest as Healey eventually did

Deborah Haynes: Former UK military chief...

https://x.com/haynesdeborah/status/2071203493507948658?s=20

#BrokenSystem

24, June #StarmerCrisis

Deborah Haynes: Sir Keir Starmer's determination to...

🚨Sir Keir Starmer's determination to release a long-delayed defence investment plan ahead of a NATO summit next month risks doing more harm than good as officials scramble to meet what has become a political deadline. The UK's allies are increasingly concerned at a failure by the government to rearm at pace, despite the prime minister declaring "hard power is the currency of the age". Publishing the defence funding blueprint before Sir Keir meets with Donald Trump and other NATO leaders in Turkey on 7 and 8 July was meant to be a way of allaying such fears. But, rather than reassuring allies, such a move risks having the reverse effect if Britain fails to set out a credible plan to transform the armed forces from hollowed out to fighting ready. In a worrying sign, officials at the Ministry of Defence are scrambling to rush through tweaks to the defence investment plan after John Healey and Al Carns resigned a fortnight ago as defence secretary and armed forces minister respectively. The pair quit in protest at a failure by Sir Keir and his chancellor to fund the original plan properly. Mr Carns also criticised its content for not focusing on the right kit, with too much emphasis on large, expensive, legacy programmes such as fast jets, warships and submarines instead of cheap, disposable drones that have transformed the battlefield in Ukraine. Dan Jarvis, the new defence secretary, has said he is now working hard to secure the "right" deal for the military and to release the defence investment plan before the Ankara summit. However, this politically dictated timeline could result in a poor outcome for the armed forces, especially if any announcement is ultimately yet more decline dressed up as reprioritised investment, with choices dictated by fiscal constraint rather than what is needed. The fact Sir Keir himself is only going to be in office for a few more weeks only adds to the lack of credibility and seriousness about what should be the top priority for any government. None of this will impress fellow member states in NATO. Most importantly, when it comes to the alliance, the headline metric that countries are judged on - as faulty and fudged as it can be - is defence spending as a proportion of GDP. Allies, with the exception of Spain, committed last year to lifting this ratio to 3.5% of GDP by 2035 - an unambitious timeline advocated by the prime minister and Rachel Reeves even though countries such as the Baltic states wanted to go much faster, and are already doing so. Underlying the incoherency of this distant timeframe is the fact that much of NATO, including Britain, is saying the alliance needs to be ready for possible war with Russia by 2030 - five years before they agreed to hit the new defence spending baseline. This mismatch between threat and investment is why Mr Healey, the previous defence secretary, could no longer support the prime minister's plan for the UK's armed forces as it would only raise the defence budget to 2.68% of GDP by 2030 from around 2.3% now. He had instead been pushing to increase the level to 3% of GDP within four years followed by a clear path to move on to 3.5% by 2035 (or sooner). This would unlock tens of billions of pounds of additional money for the military at the speed of relevance. But the Treasury baulked and the rest is history. What NATO really needs to see from the UK - a country that prides itself as being a leading member of the alliance - is a credible trajectory for when it will actually hit the new spending targets and be ready to fight a war. And that is no longer in Sir Keir's gift.

#StarmerCrisis

23, June #BrokenSystem

Deborah Haynes:NEW: Dan Jarvis, the new defence...

NEW: Dan Jarvis, the new defence secretary, signalled he is pushing for extra money for the armed forces and said he would not publish a defence investment plan “at any cost”. It is understood that a decision by his predecessor, John Healey, to quit over a failure by Sir Keir Starmer and his chancellor to find sufficient additional funding has had an impact on discussions. However it is not clear what that might mean in terms of the size of any additional uplift. The government is thought to have been seeking to release the long-delayed Defence Investment Plan on Monday but that date appeared in doubt as discussions continue between the Ministry of Defence and the Treasury. Dan Jarvis said he wants the document released – as the outgoing prime minister has promised – ahead of a major NATO summit in Tukey on 7 and 8 July. But this would mean Andy Burnham, or whoever replaces Mr Starmer, would not have had the chance to endorse what is a fundamental piece of UK government policy – the plan to defend the nation and be ready for a potential war by 2030. Addressing an annual army conference in London, Mr Jarvis said: “My priority is to get the defence investment plan done, but not at any cost. I have a responsibility to get it right.” Asked whether he was seeking additional funding and – if he did not succeed – whether he would delay publication until a new prime minister takes office, the defence secretary said: “I want to do right by defence, I want to do right by industry, and I want to honour the commitments that the prime minister and I have made about doing this prior to the Ankara summit.” He said that he was “working very closely with my colleagues in government, with the prime minister, and with the chancellor”. Mr Jarvis described having had “very good and constructive meetings” with Rachel Reeves over the past few days. “I am determined to secure the best possible deal that I can, and I'm determined to do that sooner rather than later.” But there is a clear question of time, with the summit barely two weeks away and with Mr Starmer then handing over to his successor as soon as 17 July. “Time is not my friend, because we've got to do this well in advance of going to Ankara, and that is what I'm aiming to do,” Mr Jarvis said. “But I'm also aiming to get it right and make sure that we've got the resource that we need and the right mix of capabilities to demonstrate that international leadership to our allies and most importantly make sure that our people in defence have got the resources that they need and that they understand that we will invest in them for the longer term. That is my job. That is a job I take very, very seriously. That is a job that I am determined to succeed.” Mr Healey and Al Carns, the armed forces minister, resigned from government almost two weeks ago in protest at a failure to fund the defence investment plan sufficiently. In particular, Mr Healey was seeking a commitment to lift defence spending to 3% of GDP from just over 2.3% by 2030 – a move that would unlock tens of billions of additional money. The UK is committed – along with its NATO allies – to increasing the spending target to 3.5% by 2035 but has yet set out a clear trajectory for this boost. It is something that Mr Jarvis also appeared keen to address. “I want to demonstrate to our allies that, as they have been able to previously, they can look to us for leadership in this area,” he said. “The backstop is 3.5% by 2035 In truth, it's in the normal order of things, spending reviews that chart those kind of major spending commitments, but those conversations are well underway with the chancellor, and they will no doubt continue for the next day or two”

#BrokenSystem

13, June #BrokenSystem

Deborah Haynes: We feel like window…

“We feel like window dressing for a government that doesn’t actually care” - that’s the verdict of one defence industry source after about 20 companies were invited by the Ministry of Defence to showcase their kit at the launch of a vast drone-testing centre in Swindon. At a minimum, those who attended had hoped to meet the new defence secretary. Instead, many were left disappointed as Dan Jarvis rushed in, gave a short speech, looked at a few stalls and then sped off. “I don’t know why we bothered” said another source.⬇️

#BrokenSystem

10, June #StarmerCrisis

Deborah Haynes: RIP DIP? Not yet…

RIP DIP? Not yet. But Keir Starmer’s rallying cry for Europe to rearm - made in February at a conference in Munich - remains underwhelming across much of UK defence. The drift has even prompted speculation on the margins that a “Strategic Defence Review Refresh” might be needed⬇️

#StarmerCrisis

07, June #StarmerCrisis

Deborah Haynes: A chronic delay in the release…

A chronic delay in the release by Sir Keir Starmer's government of a major plan to invest in defence has harmed the military and left the country less safe, a group of MPs has warned. In a scathing report, the Public Accounts Committee said the absence of the long-awaited Defence Investment Plan (DIP) has undermined the UK's credibility among its allies and risks "squandering the opportunities provided by advances in technology, hindering the government's attempts to modernise the armed forces". Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown, the committee chair, criticised what he called "bureaucratic drift" and said excuses by those responsible for delivering the blueprint "to the effect of 'taking the time to get the details right' simply do not cut it". He said: "Whatever the content of the DIP when it eventually does appear, the damage from its absence has been done - to the nation's credibility, to its safety, to its armed forces, and to certainty within its entire defence industrial base." Full story ⬇️

#StarmerCrisis

25, May #WarSpillover

Deborah Haynes: The government has yet to issue…

The government has yet to issue public guidance on how to ready the whole of society for potential war, despite warning almost a year ago of the need to "actively prepare". Discussions on homeland defence and wider national resilience and readiness are understood to be taking place behind closed doors. But a network of local authorities and voluntary organisations that would play a key role in every part of the country should the UK ever come under armed attack appears to be largely in the dark about what they should be doing to better prepare. Sky News has spoken to a number of experts who say that local resilience forums - the regional bodies that are responsible for supporting communities in any kind of emergency, from floods to conflict - need to become a lot more familiar with wartime planning. Such a move though would require direction and coordination from the Cabinet Office and additional money from the Treasury. Local government budgets are already stretched and - depending upon the level of government ambition - rebuilding the country's civil preparedness for potential conflict would require a whole new area of expertise, training and responsibility. This is not an alien concept, however ⬇️

#WarSpillover

30, April #WarSpillover

Deborah Haynes: A coalition base in Iraq that...

NEW: A coalition base in Iraq that British forces are helping to defend was targeted by around 28 Iranian-linked drones and missiles a day as the US and Israel attacked Iran, it has emerged. Members of the RAF Regiment, using counter-drone missile systems, blasted more than 100 of the unmanned aircraft out of the sky during roughly six weeks of combat before a temporary ceasefire deal was agreed between Washington and Tehran in early April. It is the first time the intensity of the conflict for British troops deployed to the region on defensive operations has become clear. Sky News was given rare access to the base, which is a frontline for UK military personnel. ""I would argue this place would be a smouldering wreck if it wasn't for you guys,"" @AlistairCarns , the armed forces minister, said during a visit to the site last week along with Air Chief Marshal Sir Harv Smyth, the head of the @RoyalAirForce Full story - including how gaming skills are useful for downing drones ⬇️

#WarSpillover

29, April #WarSpillover

Deborah Haynes: NEW…

NEW: The UK is rallying a new force of navies from among northern allies to be ready to fight and defend their seas amid a growing threat from Russia, the head of the Royal Navy has said It will be like the Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) and will complement NATO - but with the ability to react faster. General Sir Gwyn Jenkins said in a @RUSI_org lecture: “I aim to create a maritime force that trains, exercises and prepares together. A force designed to fight immediately if required, with real capabilities, real war plans, and real integration. “A force in which interchangeability – the ability to substitute, swap, or mix equipment, parts, ammunition, or personnel – is made possible because member nations would be operating common systems and platforms, shared digital networks, logistics and stockpiles. “A force that generates the maritime, air and amphibious strike capabilities that we all need. “This would be a visible and persistent conventional deterrent. A force that is stronger, collectively, than the sum of its parts…. “We are now looking at the creation of a family of allied fleets – something that has not happened in decades. Ultimately, we intend for them to be trained through our Fleet Operational Standards and Training (FOST), supported through UK doctrine and integration standards, and commanded if necessary from Northwood in our Maritime Operations Centre. “Last week I hosted naval chiefs from across Northern Europe to discuss how we can make this plan a reality. “And I am delighted to confirm to you today that during that meeting, we signed a statement of intent committing each of our nations to working up detailed proposals for our Northern Navies initiative. “We know we have no time to lose, which is why by the end of this year, I want us all to have signed a formal declaration, laying the foundations for what will be a vital and enduring partnership for many years to come.”

#WarSpillover

15, April

Deborah Haynes: A decision by Lord George Robertson...

A decision by Lord George Robertson to call out the prime minister and his chancellor over their failure to rearm the UK at speed in the face of growing threats marks the most significant intervention on defence spending since the end of the Cold War. The key question now is whether it will have any effect on political debate and the wider public mood - or whether his bellowing cry for action will be wafted away by reassuring soundbites from Sir Keir Starmer and his team that they have defence and security covered. The former Labour defence secretary, former NATO chief and, most pertinently, lead author of the government's own defence review, said he was speaking out against his own party with a "heavy heart" and knowing full-well it would not go down well inside Downing Street. Yet Lord Robertson clearly felt that he had no choice but to put country before politics. He has waited patiently for almost a year for the government to turn his strategic defence review into a fully-funded plan that was rapidly getting the country - as the prime minister has said needs to happen - ready for war. Instead of a flood of activity, though, with defence factories churning out weapons and the Royal Navy, Army and Royal Air Force expanding their warfighting prowess, there has been paralysis as Sir Keir Starmer, Rachel Reeves and John Healey, the defence secretary, attempt to finalise a plan on how to pay for everything. The Defence Investment Plan should have been published last autumn. It is still on the prime minister's desk awaiting sign off. "There is a corrosive complacency today in Britain's political leadership," Lord Robertson said in a carefully crafted speech at the Guildhall in Salisbury to an audience of largely local residents and a sprinkling of journalists, including me. "Lip service is paid to the risks, the threats, the bright red signals of danger. But even a promised national conversation about defence can't be started." Full analysis ⬇️

15, April

Deborah Haynes: So... business as usual inside government...

So... business as usual inside government it would seem despite the extraordinary intervention on the state of defence by Lord George Robertson - a Labour peer and author of Sir Keir Starmer's own defence review - to try to make ministers genuinely get the country ready for war instead of just talking about it. Instead, at Prime Prime Minister's Questions, @Keir_Starmer : - dismissed carefully considered and articulated criticism by Lord Robertson that there was a "corrosive complacency" on defence as incorrect. "My responsibility is to keep the British people safe and that is a duty I take seriously. That is why I don't agree with his comments", Starmer told MPs - doubled down on previous commitments - widely regarded by defence insiders as insufficient and far too slow to fix the hollowed out armed forces in time to confront the growing threats - to increase defence spending and again saying this mystical defence investment plan will be coming out soon - and then tried to score political points against the Tories despite a passionate plea by Lord Robertson in his speech on Tuesday to take the political mudslinging out of defence and make it a cross-party endeavour because of the gravity of the challenge