Wolfgang Munchau

30, April #WarSpillover

Wolfgang Munchau: Why has the oil price been so...

Why has the oil price been so subdued during the crisis? We should not overthink this issue. Traders got fooled by Trump, who kept on insisting that the war would be short, and nobody wanted to bet against the president. Now that this fairy tale is getting harder to believe, markets are starting to adjust. Even in a market as efficient as this one, and contrary to what the efficient market hypothesis would suggest, markets do not take in all the available information. http://eurointelligence.com

https://x.com/EuroBriefing/status/2049750278975426582?s=20

#WarSpillover

Wolfgang Munchau

24, April #WarSpillover

Wolfgang Munchau: Now that Viktor Orbán is out of the picture…

Now that Viktor Orbán is out of the picture, and the €90bn loan to Ukraine agreed, the really difficult part still lies ahead. The EU unity over Ukraine is fractious. Hungary, Czech Republic and Slovakia will not be part of the loan. Further down the line, we will see whether Poland, for example, is ready to become a net contributor to the EU budget, or whether France and Germany are ready to increase their net contributions further. Zelensky is right to reject the membership-light option as a symbolic scam. But real membership is outside any foreseeable time horizon. http://eurointelligence.com

#WarSpillover

Wolfgang Munchau

15, April

Wolfgang Munchau: The main reason why European governments…

The main reason why European governments led by the far-right are failing is poor economic performance. One of the biggest differences between Trump and Orbán is that the US economy – so far – performs quite well, whereas the Hungarian economy is a basket case. What RN, AfD, and Reform have in common is lack of an economic strategy. If they don’t know how to raise growth, they will be blown away. http://eurointelligence.com

Wolfgang Munchau

15, April

Wolfgang Munchau: The craziest thing the West…

The craziest thing the West is doing right now is funding its military expansion through debt. This is done in the name of security, but it creates massive security risks in itself, for example if a government under attack would face sudden fiscal constraints because it has no fiscal space available. Putin, by contrast, funds his military adventures mostly from revenues. Russia’s debt-to-GDP ratio is under 20%. If it ever came to a war, Putin’s biggest ally would be the bond market vigilantes. http://eurointelligence.com