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Alex Wickham: Exclusive by @LucyGJWhite...

Exclusive by @LucyGJWhite Reform makes plans for early election A person close to Reform says the party has become increasingly concerned Andy Burnham might call an election to take advantage of the recent decline in Nigel Farage’s fortunes triggered by revelations about the party’s finances They express concerns that Reform won’t be ready and has yet to create policy in key areas like foreign affairs, defence and education, and that it’s missing spokespeople on important beats As a result Reform is rapidly drawing up a skeleton manifesto and speeding up candidate selection, running assessment centres over the summer, they say Reform will also try to regain some impetus from Burnham by launching an attack on small-boat crossings next week A Reform official confirms the party is speeding up candidate selection and that work is ongoing to produce a manifesto, but insists they’re optimistic about their chances should Burnham call an early election

Alex Wickham: BP’s decision to sell its North Sea...

NEW by @Joe_Mayes @MitchellFerman @EllenAMilligan BP’s decision to sell its North Sea business leaves a pivotal decision for Andy Burnham and marks a critical moment for Britain’s dwindling oil and gas industry North Sea producers have criticised Tory and Labour governments since the 2022 windfall tax, arguing investing there is no longer competitive Trump wants Burnham to change tack and the new PM let the president believe he would in their first call But the reality is it’s politically contentious with environmentalists and Labour MPs opposing new drilling. That’s now been made even harder by the wildfires in Europe Despite his rhetoric it appears Burnham is in reality just looking at doing what Keir Starmer likely would have done eventually, ie tie-backs, Jackdaw and Rosebank, rather than any major change in policy That risks upsetting both sides: Trump, trade unions and the oil and gas industry for whom it might not be enough, and the green-minded side who don’t want any more drilling BP’s move “should be a defining moment for the new prime minister,” says Russell Borthwick, chief executive of Aberdeen and Grampian Chamber of Commerce. “This decision is another stark reminder that confidence in the UK continental shelf has been badly shaken after years of policy uncertainty, punitive taxation and mixed messages about the future of the industry.”

Alex Wickham: Andy Burnham’s social care speech signals...

Andy Burnham’s social care speech signals that a major new policy will come in autumn 2027 at the earliest, indicating tax rises will likely be needed to pay for it He says Louise Casey will expedite her review so it’s completed a year from now. The review will consider how to pay for a new social care policy. Casey is launching a national conversation about it From the fiscal perspective this suggests no new policy until at least autumn 2027 and therefore that Burnham and John Healey will not need to find new money for it at this year’s budget Asked about tax rises, he says he thinks it’s possible to do “much more” within existing budgets but that “difficult decisions” will be required. That suggests he accepts tax rises are likely needed to pay for the policy. He recommits to Labour’s manifesto pledges There were no real details today about what sorts of options Burnham and Casey are looking at, but a cast iron commitment to fix social care He says “it is a major dereliction of public duty” that successive governments have not fixed social care, calling it “shameful.” Says “social care in England is as unfair as American healthcare” He says people may be feeling deja vu, criticising 22 social care reviews in the last three decades, but vows “this time we are going to do it” Burnham says he’ll look at how to improve working standards for care workers, and hold talks with other parties to try to build a consensus (although the Tories and Reform say they won’t support new tax rises)
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