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Alex Wickham: EXCLUSIVE…

EXCLUSIVE: Andy Burnham says Labour must take a “different course” after the local elections. He declines to back Keir Starmer staying on, signals he’ll make another run for Parliament and argues defence spending should be taken out of the fiscal rules to fund a rise through borrowing. “It’s got to be a moment of reflection,” Burnham says in a Bloomberg interview today, warning the results will be “challenging.” He says in the aftermath it means “starting to now pull through on a different course.” “I understand the real frustration people have got with politics and politicians. I honestly, I really understand that. And they’re right to say politics just hasn’t been working,” the Greater Manchester Mayor tells @flacqua . Burnham makes clear he intends to run again for Parliament. “The politics we’ve pioneered as mayors: place first, not party first — that needs to go national, and so we do need to reform Westminster. I can’t remove the kind of feeling that someday I will try and go back. I’m not ruling it out.” Asked if Starmer should stay after May 7, Burnham declines to answer. Instead he says the PM deserves more “credit” for the job he’s done. And he suggests defence spending should be taken out of the fiscal rules in what would be a major change to UK policy to fund an increase in defence spending through borrowing. While he suggests the fiscal rules “will stay in any context,” he says “there’s certainly a case, when we look at the pressure on defence spending, to consider that exceptionally outside of the rules.”

Alex Wickham: Keir Starmer end-day analysis…

Keir Starmer end-day analysis: he is wounded from the last two weeks but limps on to face his fate after the locals. — The PM finished the day in a better place than he started it. He got a rare victory winning tonight’s Commons vote with minimal rebellion. If he had lost it would have been close to game over. But No10 won the argument with Labour MPs that this was a political stunt from the Tories. Labour MPs decided to keep their problems in-house rather than give Kemi Badenoch the win. — Downing Street is relieved that what threatened to be a perilous Tuesday didn’t do much serious new damage. The sessions with Philip Barton and Morgan McSweeney ended without a killer blow. When it comes to the process on Starmer versus Olly Robbins, after hours and hours of testimony from all the key witnesses, there are arguments on both sides and no clear winner, maybe just two losers. — Philip Barton’s evidence was uncomfortable for No10 but his crucial caveat that he was not put under pressure over the substance of Mandelson’s appointment process gave the PM something of a reprieve. It could have been much worse for No10. — That means after two weeks of intense scrutiny on Mandelson, he has survived until the next flashpoint after the locals. As Bloomberg reported on Saturday, Starmer’s rivals think they need a ‘perfect storm’ of events to bring him down including an ‘emotional’ response from MPs to May 7 leading to a cabinet revolt. It remains unclear if Labour MPs have the stomach or plan to change leader now. It all comes down to the days after the vote. — Starmer will seek to move past the Mandelson scandal with a renewed focus on security, in terms of Britain’s defence, economy and energy supply as we reported a few weeks ago. He is planning a series of speeches and policy interventions on those topics.

Alex Wickham: Keir Starmer state of play ahead of a big Tuesday…

Keir Starmer state of play ahead of a big Tuesday - The PM’s allies, Labour MPs and the Tories all think Starmer will win tomorrow’s vote and Parliament will reject a privileges probe. - Starmer’s allies think they have won the argument that the timing of the vote by the Tories is politically motivated ahead of the locals. - Big beasts like Gordon Brown coming out to say as such have helped No10. Foreign affairs select committee chair Emily Thornberry agrees. Starmer’s rivals like Angela Rayner are remaining loyal. It sounds like PLP tonight was largely supportive with only a couple of left-wing dissenters. - Tory HQ think it’s a win-win for them. They don’t dispute this was a political move. Conservative officials say if Labour MPs vote with Starmer then the Tories will point that out to voters on the doorstep ahead of May 7. - The danger for Starmer comes at 9am when Philip Barton appears in front of FASC. He is expected back up Olly Robbins and Ian Collard and say No10 did put pressure on the foreign office re Mandelson. If he produces bombshell evidence of serious pressure then that could produce a case that Starmer misled Parliament. You’d expect Morgan McSweeney will deny any pressuring when he testifies at 11am. - But what it may come down to is your definition of pressure. Starmer argued to @joshglancy in the Sunday Times that there are normal pressures of the job, such as getting things done quickly. What he is denying is that No10 pressured FCDO to approve Mandelson against due process. Robbins and Collard both say pressure didn’t affect their decisions, so sort of agree. Will Barton? - Remarkably Collard says in his evidence to FASC tonight that he too didn’t see the UKSV form with boxes ticked against recommending Mandelson get clearance. That means the two key decision-makers, Collard and Robbins, didn’t see the key document and instead decided among themselves that they could mitigate the Mandelson concerns. - Nearly two weeks on from the Guardian story, who is right and wrong on the process remains unclear. No10 will still argue FCDO failed to share the UKSV concerns with them and shouldn’t have tried to cook it up among themselves. Robbins essentially argues it’s all been a big misunderstanding, that Mandelson’s vetting problems were resolvable and he shouldn’t have been sacked. As Thornberry suggested after his evidence last week, it could be that there was fault on all sides.

Robin Monotti: If you think that Milei's claims…

If you think that Milei's claims over the Falklands the day after he meets with Netanyahu have nothing do with Iran, perhaps think again. The strategy seems clear: Starmer moves RAF resources to Iran due to pressure from Trump, then when the Falklands are undefended, Milei puts pressure by claiming them, and forces Starmer to hand over more of the Falkland gas fields to Israel which already has a 65% stake in the Sea Lion gas basin.

Alex Wickham: NEW: Bloomberg Saturday read…

NEW: Bloomberg Saturday read — Will Keir Starmer survive? His rivals say it’ll take a perfect storm of disastrous events happening in quick succession for the PM to be ousted next month: more Mandelson revelations, an “emotional” response by MPs to the locals, and a cabinet revolt. — The first seems possible. Philip Barton is expected to back up Olly Robbins on Tuesday. The key is if he can produce evidence No10 did pressure the foreign office. Then Starmer will be accused of misleading parliament. In theory he could be called to the privileges committee. — Some in govt also suspect there is more to emerge about how Mandelson conducted himself as ambassador that could come out either in leaks to the media or humble address disclosures. Starmer is so badly wounded that any further revelations could take him into resignation territory. — The second factor his opponents say is needed is what they call an “emotional” reaction by MPs after the local elections. It is priced in that Labour will lose upwards of 2,000 councillors. A sober response might see MPs say local election results are not a reason to change a PM, or at least wait until an obvious successor emerges. A more emotional one, triggered by the sight of so many lifelong local colleagues losing their jobs, could see MPs beyond the usual suspects come out and call for Starmer to go. If that coincided with more Mandelson revelations, momentum may build in the days after May 7. — If it really builds, it could spread to the cabinet. That’s the third factor seen as required to oust the PM. Most think it will ultimately fall on cabinet ministers to tell him his time is up. If one-by-one enough do, not just one or two but enough that Starmer finds it impossible to form a government, he’d have to agree to step down pending the result of a leadership contest. — While rival camps are gaming all this out, for most MPs who spoke to Bloomberg this week it is not their base case. Most still seem to think the lack of a credible plan to replace Starmer means he will get through May. — The issues are well-versed. The left don’t like Wes Streeting. The right don’t like Angela Rayner, whose tax issues are ongoing. Neither has a policy platform. Neither poll well. A contest between them would be deeply divisive and whoever wins will have no mandate from the public. Farage’s calls for an early general election would be hard to argue against. Voters will see Labour as the Tories 2.0. — Some on the left want to wait for Andy Burnham. They think he will make clear in the aftermath of May 7 that he wants to stand for parliament again and that Starmer won’t be able to block him this time. He at least polls better than the others. But some say he isn’t as popular with MPs as people think. And who knows how long it’ll take him to make it to Westminster. — That all leads many MPs to conclude the most likely scenario is still that Starmer muddles on through May. But it leaves Labour in a bleak position of their own making: stuck with a PM few really back, who they brief against constantly, but they don’t have a plan to replace. @Joe_Mayes

Liz Webster: RishiSunak calling it straight in today’s Times…

RishiSunak calling it straight in today’s Times. He is right to say the Mandelson appointment wasn’t a failure of process but a failure of political judgment. The responsibility absolutely sits squarely with the Prime Minister. Sunak: “The responsibility for the decision rests with the prime minister.” “Process is no substitute for judgment.” Time to cut through all the deflection and endless reviews, the sacking of Olly Robbins, the whataboutery claims that “I wasn’t told”. 😈 You can add more bureaucracy. You can sack more officials. You can hide behind process. But the decision to appoint Mandelson, despite the red flags, despite the vetting failure, despite the Epstein links, was political. And that decision belongs 💯 to Keir Starmer, even if McSwindle made it for him. This is the same PM who publicly defended the appointment, claimed full process was followed, and then claimed he was kept in the dark. Sunak’s point lands hard: own the call. The gremlin project wasn’t derailed by bad process. It was driven by bad judgment at the top. And now even the man Starmer replaced is saying what everyone can see: accountability starts with the Prime Minister. #MandelsonEpstein

Liz Webster: This 👇 Mandelson development just changed the game…

This 👇 Mandelson development just changed the game. The EU’s anti-fraud office (OLAF) is now investigating possible misconduct during his time as European Trade Commissioner. This is no longer just a UK political story. It internationalises the scandal. Suddenly we have an independent European body with its own powers, evidence thresholds, and access to documents from outside direct UK government or parliamentary control. That means: 💥 Less exposure to No.10 pressure 💥 Different scrutiny and timelines 💥 The story can’t be fully managed or contained domestically. Even if Whitehall withholds files, OLAF can request them. This is an investigation, not a conviction. It focuses on his EU commissioner years (2004–2008), including alleged favouritism and leaks. But the timing couldn’t be worse for Starmer. The gremlin project was always about elite networking across borders. Now that networking is coming under external investigation both here (Met Police) and in Europe (OLAF).

Andrew Feinstein: Please come to hustings for local election…

Please come to hustings for local election candidates in Somers Town, Camden - Starmer’s constituency. The Camden People’s Alliance has 3 great local candidates representing the politics of my campaign against Starmer: no to austerity, no to constantly increasing defence spending; yes to affordable properly maintained social & council housing, more for the NHS, our schools & care homes. No to benefits for corporations & the super rich; yes to benefits increasing in line with inflation. No to cosy relationships with billionaire donors & corporations, yes to serving the community’s real needs. No support for genocide! Let’s get rid of Starmer’s Labour

Liz Webster: Starmer’s EU reset is running out of time and momentum…

Starmer’s EU reset is running out of time and momentum, it is more of a tactical survival than genuine strategic pivot. Despite Starmer’s stronger language the reset remains very limited by his unworkable red lines. The July summit package (SPS/food checks, carbon pricing link, possible youth mobility) is expected to deliver only 0.3% GDP boost over 15 years; a tiny fraction of the 4–8% Brexit hit estimated by economists. EU officials are sceptical and frustrated: they see it as “old wine in new bottles” - Britain still wants cherry-picking without paying (budget contributions) or conceding on movement. Industry welcomes small steps but warns it’s nowhere near enough. The reset is hampered by slow negotiations, bureaucratic resistance and competing UK priorities ESPECIALLY the US 🇺🇸 deals. Internal Labour pressure is growing for a bolder approach (including from figures like David Lammy), but Starmer is constrained by politics. Polling shows shifting public opinion, majority want closer ties or even rejoining, but Starmer’s caution risks pleasing no one. ⚠️ 🚩 Analysts @anandMenon1 , Sir Ivan Rogers, @CER_Grant warn the status quo is unsustainable and time is running out for any meaningful pivot. 🔗

Andrew Feinstein: Well said @ZackPolanski…

Well said @ZackPolanski Starmer & his reactionary ilk believe that only Jews who share their odious politics r worth caring about. This is a natural consequence of their weaponisation of antisemitism for their own factional political purposes. Their belief that all Jews should have the same attitude towards Israel is offensive. Jews have always prided ourselves on our diversity of thought & opinion

Liz Webster: Looks like planned, procedural exit...

Significant Times piece by @patrickkmaguire Looks like planned, procedural exit for Starmer after the expected May 7/8 local election disaster: • Cabinet ministers are now privately concluding that Starmer cannot survive the fallout. • The favoured scenario is not an immediate coup, but an “orderly transition” where Starmer is persuaded (or pressured) to announce a timetable for stepping down. • A new leader would be in place by Labour Party conference (late September / early October 2026) • Maguire names @AndyBurnhamGM as a central figure in this thinking. He notes that soft-left powerbrokers (Miliband, Rayner, Haigh) see Burnham as a viable route back into frontline politics and the leadership contest. Maguire writes that this “bloodless regicide” would suit most of the cabinet: it buys time, avoids a messy immediate leadership election, and gives Burnham a runway to return to the Commons and prepare. https://thetimes.com/article/8d388f0a-08b1-4855-b62b-f3a07118a5e1?shareToken=f6b69a12a142b6752de9a01cbe533118
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