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Edwin Hayward: Labour's dire situation is easy to understand…

Labour's dire situation is easy to understand if you look at it with eyes wide open. Starmer won a huge majority of MPs but Labour's vote share in doing so was very low at just 33.7%. Compare that to Johnson in 2019 who won 43.6% of all votes. It's only FPTP that delivered the parliamentary majority Labour now enjoy. So any "Labour landslide" narrative strictly applies only to the number of Labour MPs in power, but crucially not to Labour's appeal with voters in general. A lot of the 33.7% were people who just wanted to see the back of the Tories. They weren't Starmer Labour voters. They would have voted for a balloon on a stick. Now add in rising interest in Reform and in the Green Party since 2024, and you'll see that Starmer's wafer thin actual electoral advantage has been obliterated. Put plainly: Labour WILL lose in 2029 unless something DRASTIC changes. (And even then they may well yet lose.) Starmer cannot make drastic changes. His hands are tied by his role in drafting the manifesto, by his various red lines, by his actions in the first two years as PM, and by the slate of upcoming initiatives he just unveiled in the King's Speech. But a new leader (especially someone not closely connected with Starmer's administration and therefore untainted by it) could tear everything up and start fresh in a completely different direction. Would that be enough? Who knows. It would take some skilled manoeuvring, that's for sure. Will Labour lose if they continue under Starmer? 100%. Roll the dice: have a chance. Stay the course: failure guaranteed.

Liz Webster: Wes Streeting finally does…

🚨 Wes Streeting finally does the darstedly deed and calls for Starmer to go. The civil war is now out in the open. But let’s be clear: this is still the same Westminster bubble fighting over who gets to manage decline. The candidate Labour members and Red Wall voters actually want is @AndyBurnhamGM who is still locked out because he’s not an MP yet. No more games. Open the path for Burnham now. This party needs real change, not another centrist reshuffle

Alex Wickham: ***NEW*** Supporters of Andy Burnham…

***NEW*** Supporters of Andy Burnham are asking the cabinet to go to Keir Starmer and urge him not to stand in a leadership contest against Wes Streeting The Burnham camp say they think cabinet ministers will tell Starmer he should instead set a timetable for a longer contest if Streeting does move BUT friends of Starmer completely dismiss that. They say there is no chance he will listen to any such advice and insist he will stand in a contest now if Streeting has the numbers Streeting’s allies are saying different things about whether he has 81 MPs and his chances of success in a leadership election Some think this is his only shot and he’s right to go over the top. Others are less sure he can get to 81 and also worry the backlash against him could see him lose to Starmer or another candidate If there is an expedited contest many on the soft-left expect Ed Miliband to stand to try to stop either Streeting or Starmer winning Any immediate contest could become a free-for-all with ambitious novice Al Carns as well as other members of the cabinet deciding they fancy their chances As of 2pm this afternoon, the Labour Party appears to be moving from paralysis toward chaos With @EllenAMilligan >>>

Dale Vince: Odd story - Goldman Sachs warns Starmer…

Odd story - Goldman Sachs warns Starmer risks pushing borrowing costs up (by hanging on) - while borrowing costs actually fall, because Starmer refuses to quit. He has a mandate, the fact that he’s unpopular right now is not a reason for him to quit, it’s a reason for him to do better, much better - and deliver on the promise the electorate bought into. Global events have not helped, but mistakes have also been made - meanwhile there are big obvious changes to be made. We've seen the fake announcement of breaking the link from Ed Miliband - how about actually breaking the link and bringing energy bills down. Easy to do, number one on my list. Tax system re balancing, housing market reform - both desperately needed - and a ban on political donations. New Babelfish edition on that out next week.

Liz Webster: @b_judah confirms it!…

✅ @b_judah confirms it! “The gap between what No 10 is saying and what is actually happening has grown too large… on Brexit.” Starmer talks “at the heart of Europe” while clinging to red lines that make real alignment impossible. And he’s used Henry VIII powers to push through bad USA deals which are incompatible with the EU. Even pro-rejoin voices now see the reset as deceptive. The public is ahead, 59% want to rejoin.

Ben Judah: Starmer's authority is now crumbling…

Starmer's authority is now crumbling. But even those most committed to a new Prime Minister should pause for thought about what it means for Britain in the world. For all his many, many domestic missteps, Keir Starmer has genuinely led on Ukraine, make tough calls with Trump and rebuilt relations with Europe by working intensely with President Macron and Chancellor Merz. Labour in government was shocked at how quickly it was swamped by foreign affairs from Gaza and Ukraine, to Trump and Iran. This isn't going to change. However Starmer's challengers have no foreign policy experience, no geopolitical worldviews, no foreign affairs teams and no experience in explaining our place in the world and its tumult to the public. But if they succeed that will be half their job. What's the plan for a geopolitical pivot to Europe? What's the strategy to deal with Trump and our fragmenting Western alliance as China's Axis of Authoritarians deepens? What's next for Britain's extensive diplomatic and security role when it comes to Ukraine? Who will be maintaining key connections to the White House? Changes at the top are often necessary. But they are delicate and not cost free internationally. In diplomacy so much is bound up in personal connections and trust built up over time. Building since 2016, these musical chairs at the top have now become so intense, with Prime Ministers lasting roughly two years and Foreign Secretaries now annuals, our allies and partners are frustrated. I've heard from European and Gulf leaderships first hand it is hardly worth investing diplomatically in a counterpart who's suddenly gone and thus hardly worth investing in Britain.

Alex Wickham: ***NEW: State of play this evening***…

***NEW: State of play this evening*** Keir Starmer has defied all expectations, surviving the day despite some 90 Labour MPs calling for his head and four junior ministerial resignations. A minister tells Bloomberg they are astonished Starmer has managed to get through it without being forced to announce a timetable for his departure, saying the day went better for him than anyone can have imagined. Starmer’s stance at cabinet effectively dared his rivals to come out and publicly challenge him. As of this evening, no one has. Streeting is speaking with Starmer tomorrow morning, as per @steven_swinford , after the PM blanked him post-cabinet. The health secretary’s allies say he won’t say anything to distract from the king’s speech. Labour MPs and aides think Streeting is conducting what one calls a campaign of attrition against Starmer by drip-feeding his supporters’ calls for the PM to go. His camp deny he is orchestrating a plot. Streeting’s supporters say they are divided about his strategy. Some are disappointed he has not yet gone over the top, fearing he could be seen as losing his nerve and being labelled a bottle job. However, others caution that pressure has to grow organically on Starmer before Streeting is able to challenge him, otherwise the soft-left will accuse him of a cynical move to force a contest before Andy Burnham is ready. One Streeting supporter says they fear his chances of becoming PM are decreasing. They say they’re struggling to see how he has a path to No10 because if he runs the soft-left will put someone up against him who is likely to be favoured by members. They say they’re coming to terms with what they see as the likelihood that Burnham will succeed Starmer. However so far Burnham is also still silent. He’s in London meeting MPs and discussing his options. His camp insist he has a plan to make it to parliament, but so far they’ve stopped short of announcing it. Labour is in a state of paralysis tonight. David Lammy says no one has come forward and no one seems to have the numbers against Starmer. Most in Labour don’t expect that to hold. They still think the PM will be forced to announce a timetable in the coming days if Streeting, Burnham and the cabinet move. But as of right now, he clings on. Story with great colleagues @EllenAMilligan

David Poulden: Comrade @Keir_Starmer lectures us about stopping…

Comrade @Keir_Starmer lectures us about stopping 'far-right agitators' from speaking at a march, while Islamic hate preachers openly call for death to Jews and gays in our mosques without a whisper from him. He lets thousands pour in on boats with zero checks, but bans people like @JoeyMannarino , @ValentinaForUSA and @EvaVlaar for having the wrong opinion. This isn't about stopping hate, it's about silencing anyone who doesn't fit his narrative. Free speech in the UK is dead...

Liz Webster: INCREDIBLE!!! Hard man Brexit @SteveBakerFRSA exposes…

😮 INCREDIBLE!!! Hard man Brexit @SteveBakerFRSA exposes the truth about Starmer’s rejoin deception: “Honestly, it’s such nonsense because he’s not changing his red lines. Even if you were on his side, you’d have to admit that’s never going to work. The EU won’t give us the access we want to the single market without free movement, and Starmer isn’t going to commit to free movement. This is the problem. People keep failing to understand it’s just basic incompetence. What is the EU about? It’s about political integration, free movement of people, and a single currency. Keeping the pound was always an exemption. Yet our PMs keep negotiating with the EU as if it were something completely different. The stupidity of this speech …… saying Britain will be ‘at the heart of Europe’ but not actually at the heart of Europe… The EU will hear it and they will guffaw at him straight out of the blocks.”

Alex Wickham: *GILTS EXTEND DECLINES…

*GILTS EXTEND DECLINES; UK 10-YEAR YIELD RISES 9BPS TO 5% (Bloomberg) -- UK government bonds slid as calls grew for Prime Minister Keir Starmer to step aside following his party’s large losses in local elections last week. Yields on 30-year gilts, which are sensitive to political and fiscal risks, rose almost 10 basis points to 5.68%. For bond investors, the main concern is that a new leader could shift Labour to the left and hike spending to win back disaffected voters.

Liz Webster: Starmer and Streeting’s technofeudalism has no limits…

‼️ Starmer and Streeting’s technofeudalism has no limits. The audacity is staggering. NHS England has quietly granted Palantir contractors unlimited access to identifiable patient data on its £330 million Federated Data Platform. An internal briefing warned of the “risk of loss of public confidence” but approved it anyway because repeated checks were “too inconvenient”. This is a dangerous surrender of our most sensitive health data to a controversial US tech giant. #NHS #Palantir #DataSurrender
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